It’s crazy to see how this war has evolved. In that survey I did a few days after the invasion started, most people assumed that Ukraine couldn’t win. Now, Russia is being forced to mobilize because they are losing. And I’m skeptical that this mobilization will lead to their win. Rather, I think it’s just delaying their loss.
I think your interpretation is being too charitable to Russia. These new conscripts will be poorly trained and poorly equipped, and will not make the significant impact on the war the you think they’re having.